14-Feb-2012 - OECD Data Suggest US, Japan Rebound

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By PAUL HANNON LONDON—The world's developed economies may be set to emerge from several months of slowdown, led by the U.S. and Japan, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The Paris-based think tank said on Monday that its leading indicator of economic activity in its 34 member nations rose to 100.4 in December from 100.2 in November—the first increase in the measure since February 2011. The tentative recovery will likely be led by the U.S. and Japan, with the leading indicator for the U.S., the world's largest economy, rising to 102.0 from 101.3 for a second straight monthly gain, and the leading indicator for Japan, the third largest, rising to 101.9 from 101.7, its first rise since February 2011. There were NFL jerseys similar signs of a possible recovery in Russia and India. "Composite leading indicators…point to a positive change in momentum for the OECD as a whole, driven primarily by the United States and Japan, but similar signs are beginning to emerge in a number of other developed economies," the OECD said. The OECD's leading indicators are designed to provide early signals of turning points between the expansion and slowdown of economic activity, and are based on a wide variety of data series that have a history of signaling changes in economic activity. The pickup in the composite leading indicator is consistent with measures of current economic activity, which have pointed to a revival in recent months. Released earlier this month, the J.P. Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index for January, which was based on surveys of purchasing managers around the globe, rose for the third straight month. The leading indicators continued to point to slowing growth in the euro wholesale nfl jerseys zone, which is struggling to resolve a fiscal crisis. Many of its members having been forced to implement harsh austerity programs. However, the OECD said the leading indicators for seven of the 15 countries in the currency area for which measures are calculated "are now pointing toward a positive change in momentum." The leading indicators for Germany, Italy, France and the euro zone as a whole all fell again in December, which the OECD said pointed to "below-trend growth." The leading indicator for the U.K. was unchanged, but again pointed to growth that was significantly weaker than usual. The think tank also released leading indicators for large developing economies. In addition to showing signs of a recovery in Russia and India, they pointed to a slowdown in China—the Reebok NFL jerseys world's second-largest economy—and continued below-trend growth in Brazil. "The CLI for China points more strongly to a slowdown this month than in last month's assessment," the OECD said. Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@dowjones.com

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